Everyone that's early want things to come faster

Everyone that’s late wants things to last longer

-BobbyyJames

Things move in cycles - Market Cycles

• accumulation, markup, distribution, markdown

  

Example: Correlation between Memes vs VC coins

• Dec, January & Feb

  • where memes are in accumulation phase - (eg: Ponke, GIGA, Retardio, Popcat)
  • signs of topping (distribution phase) in VC coins (eg: SUI, Sei)
  • memes then go to massive uptrend phase after accumulation (multiple Xs advancement), while VCs coins going through markdown phase (Eg: SUI down 78% from April top)

• July - August

  • local top (signs of distribution) spotted for memes
  • while vcs coins going through reaccumulation (bottoming process) after prior markdown (mostly down 70-80%)
    • note 5 August dump

• Thesis

  • interesting inverse correlation can be observed between memes and VCs coins due to shift of liquidity flow
  • Q4 - VCs alts might pump & memes might underperform (memes going to bottoming or reaccumulation process)
  • 2025 - might then start seeing big exponential rally for relevant memes (which then might indicate we are near market top)
    • liquidity flow from VCs after securing profit from alts markup phase might push memes to crazy highs
    • market rally always ends with seeing some memes going to FDV that doesnt make sense
  • playbook cycle always the same
  • Backing up this thesis - ETH/BTC chart (indicator for alts market)
    • after 2 months deviation/breakdown - follow with alts pump afterwards (could see a nice pump on October for alts)
    • take note: alts defending 5 August low & forming base accumulation pattern (example SUI - look like bullish Quasimodo pattern on daily)

  

• Why we use VCs coins?

  • They are the market maker, they know how to make big money
  • They are the one that move market

Another example of Liquidity Flow - Meme Perspective (From Leader to other Meme)

• WIF move first - tops in April (WIF = leader)
• Then this liquidity flows to other memes (causes massive gains until July/August of which WIF already in downtrend phase at this time)
• Meanwhile, in August, other memes are topping out, while WIF is likely in a reaccumulation phase

Extras

• Some VC coins potential sector to look for
  • Layer 1
  • RWA or tokenization
  • AI
  • Gaming
  • Depin
• 2 risks
  • Risks of losing money
  • Risks of losing opportunity
  • This is where risk management comes in handy